Written by: Craig Edwin Holdway
We will now have to watch and wait, in my opinion, to see how the new American Administration which has less than 100 days of experience, will respond to an impending pivotal North Korean provocation.
One, if not the greatest national holiday in the DPRK is Kim Il-Sung's birthday on April 15th. To prove to the world North Korean independence and military might, a large-scale nuclear test or long-range missile test may probably occur. Following the radical about-face from an America-first policy to the knee-jerk cruise missile diplomacy with the attack on a Syrian Airforce base by President Trump and the corresponding reversal in opinion regarding the government of Syria, North Korea may believe they have proof of their ideological belief that the United States is planning an imminent invasion of their sovereign borders. These beliefs may be further cemented with the public disclosure by the American Military which normally refuses to disclose the whereabouts of their ships, that a full Carrier Group is moving offshore as a direct result of North Korean provocations.
I believe that North Korea will never give up their nuclear ambitions and that they view nuclear weapons as a fundamental requirement for the continued existence of their nation.
As a result of these current tensions, North Korea may view the bombings in Syria and the relocation of the carrier fleet as a desperate attempt for a tremendously unpopular American President to rally some sort of nationalist pride to prop up his domestic agenda through International intervention at their expense and also as a prelude to an invasion or military intervention in their country.
North Korea has always engaged in military provocations when threatened and, with the National Holiday approaching, may take unprecedented steps to show the world that they are not intimidated by the United States, which if not viewed with restraint, may escalate to the point of no return with an attack by North Korea on either South Korea or Japan.
I am hoping that this about-face in American response toward Syria is not the beginning of a legitimization of action which has a goal of confronting Iran and the elimination of Iranian Nuclear Centrifuges and thus challenging Russian support for both countries, as I predicted in November.
The situation of alliances within Syria is very convoluted with each major power using proxy warriors (Kurdish Rebels, Syrian Opposition, Syrian Democratic Forces etc.) to forward their agendas. If the Syrian regime is destabilized, it will open the door to ISIS increasing their power and influence as Syria will no longer be a deterrent force to their expansion. I believe the only eventuality would be for a huge number of American and NATO ground forces to be moved into Syria to combat the increased ISIL threat. If this indeed does happen, the question of whether or not Western Allied ground forces in Syria was the ultimate primary goal all along, as it would provide a huge staging point for the invasion or strategic bombing of Iran through Iraq and providing access from the Mediterranean.
This could escalate into a confrontation with North Korea and Iran and as an extension, China and Russia as well.
The views are my own and are based on my own experiences and are written from personal insights and observations.