Written by: Craig Edwin Holdway
It seems that the estimates given by the American State Department earlier this year of the possibility of Iran creating a useable nuclear weapon no earlier than the middle of the next decade were a little off, as the possibility has been narrowed to within a couple of years. It seems the problem is there are no American undercover intelligence officers inside the Iranian Nuclear Program to confirm the level of achievement of their nuclear program. A rudimentary Nuclear Device would devastate a large city like Tel Aviv and may provide the ammunition for Israel to bomb an Iranian Nuclear Installation.
The concerning thing for me is the reports that are coming out of Turkey right now, with the American government capturing a high-level Iranian Nuclear worker inside Turkey to gather nuclear program information. This seems like a fairly bold provocation against Iran and the current situation of the US looking to declare the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a Terrorist Group may cause Iran to push back.
Russia, this month, has finally declared the Mediterranean to be of great importance to their long-term goals and is looking to establish a permanent Mediterranean naval base in the region. The base would probably be placed in the Syrian port of Tartus for two reasons. One reason would be that having a very strong Russian presence in Syria would deter any American or Israeli hostilities towards Syria and Iran. The other reason would be as Russia has stated that they will be returning to a level of technological military superiority and thus resuming Cold War era flights by their nuclear bombers, they will be in a better position to apply their goal of increased pressure and influence on and against the American Government preceding the upcoming American Presidential Elections.
With all the positioning in the Mediterranean, it seems that no one has paid much attention to the Chinese naval buildup in the Indian Ocean. The Chinese have within the last couple of decades, achieved the distinction of being the world's fourth largest shipbuilder and dramatically increasing their naval capabilities. The danger is the buildup of the Chinese naval fleet in the Indian Ocean will provide support to allies like Sri Lanka and provide the ability to better offset the American Fifth Fleet, which currently operates in the Indian Ocean providing support to operations in Afghanistan.
The views are my own and are based on my own experiences and are written from personal insights and observations.